In this Round Table, our experts will discuss, and try to predict, the upcoming Russian Premier League season. The panel consists of:
Stefano Conforti (@ConfortiStefano): Writer for Russian Football News, Futbolgrad and MundoFutbol
Ilya Sokolov (@Lokosokol): Writer for Russian Football News, Spotted by Locals, RT and Football Weekends
Andrew Flint (@AndrewMijFlint): Writer for Russian Football News and Futbolgrad, Senior writer at These Football Times
Joel Amorim (@Vostok1981): Writer for Russian Football News, WhoScored, FutnSoccer, Bola na Rede and Futbol Pulse
David Sansun (@RFN_David): Writer for Russian Football News, Futbolgrad and Editor for FIFA Talent Scout
Thomas Giles (@Thomas_Giles_UK): Writer for Russian Football News, Sportsdaily, Three and in and Made In Brum Fanzine
Toke Theilade (@TokeTheilade): Editor-in-Chief at Russian Football News, Sports editor at Mreast.dk, writer for These Football Times
Question 1: What will the Top 5 look like, and who will win the cup?
Stefano: I have no doubt. Zenit, CSKA, Krasnodar, Rubin and Spartak will end in the top 5. Regarding the Russian Cup, I’d go either for CSKA or Anzhi. I predict a balanced championship, which, as usual, will be decided during the final stages. I think Zenit are the main candidate to win the Russian Premier League, but at the same time I’m sure CSKA and Krasnodar have enough quality to steal the title. Rubin have built a very good team, but they’re yet to test their real value, despite some convincing victories during the recent training. I see Spartak ahead of Rostov and Terek as Alenichev finally has the opportunity to work with a team of players he personally chose. I also consider Anzhi a perspective team, which however isn’t ready for the top 5. Consequently, Vrba should bet everything on the Cup and with the support of their loyal fans, everything is possible.
Ilya: 1. Zenit, 2. CSKA, 3. Krasnodar, 4. Lokomotiv, 5. Terek
There are two rules I believe in. Firstly, under Mutko’s foreigner limit, the teams with the best Russian players has the best odds. Only Zenit, CSKA and Krasnodar have players, who can be called indispensable for the national team. Zenit will win the league, because CSKA’s defence is finally getting old. Secondly, stability beats money. I was impressed by Rubin’s transfers, but I’m not convinced Javi Gracia will be in Kazan at the end of the season, bearing in mind the behavior of local bosses. Lokomotiv, Spartak and Terek have better chances to get European competitions, as they retained their coaches. If Berdyev stays, Rostov will fight for Europa League spots too.
Spartak will win the Russian Cup. Just kidding. I think that Krasnodar is by far the strongest among the teams who are motivated to win this tournament. They will congratulate themselves with the new stadium by bringing the cup there.
Andrew: This season promises to be one of the most tightly fought in recent memory with Zenit’s loss of talisman Hulk, Rubin’s sudden rush of spending power, Krasnodar’s continued meteoric rise and Spartak’s more settled summer. CSKA have again been sloppy in allowing their forwards department to thin dramatically on the eve of the domestic season – personally I am surprised they let Kirill Panchenko go out on loan, otherwise what was the point in signing him anyway? They will still be favourites in my eyes, especially as Bibras Natkho has looked electric in preseason scoring seven goals. I am as shocked as everyone else at the sudden wealth in Kazan, and as long as FFP doesn’t catch up with them soon they should be disappointed to not make the top five. 1. CSKA, 2. Krasnodar, 3. Zenit, 4. Rubin, 5. Spartak.
As for the Cup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rubin have a good run as their squad is now so well-stocked that they will be able to rotate if necessary, and won’t have any European fixtures to distract them or alter priorities.
Joel: It’s hard to say that when teams are still oiling their engines for the long season ahead. Nevertheless, my top 5 looks like this: 1st – FC Zenit, 2nd – FC Krasnodar, 3rd – FC Spartak Moscow, 4th – CSKA Moscow, 5th – FC Rubin
As for the Russian Cup, I have checked my crystal ball, but I didn’t get any proper hints. Nevertheless, I would say that both FC Zenit and FC Krasnodar are solid candidates to win the trophy.
David: After the transfer window, we’ve seen so far, this could prove to be one of the tightest seasons in the RFPL for many years. Zenit, CSKA and Krasnodar would be expected to do well, as normal, despite Zenit losing Hulk and CSKA losing Ahmed Musa. Rostov were of course rank outsiders last year but amazed everyone to claim 2nd place, but with their lack of transfers, loss of Mogilevets and potential loss of Berdyev combined with the additional strain of European football, I would be surprised to see them repeat their feat. Spartak would be another in contention, Lokomotiv remain a doubt with the expected loss of Corluka in defence, and having failed to sufficiently replace with Baye Oumar Niasse. Rubin Kazan will be hoping to bounce back from their poor season, and after bringing in a new manager and spending close to €30m, many are tipping them to challenge for the top. The cup, as always, is a lottery. I will back Zenit as they are good at closing out games in that sense.
Top 5 (in no particular order): Zenit, CSKA, Krasnodar, Spartak, Rubin
Cup: Zenit
Thomas: I think the usual suspects of Zenit St. Petersburg and CSKA Moscow will take the top two spots next season. Although both clubs have lost good players in the likes of Hulk and Ahmed Musa, they are so far ahead of the other competition. Of course, Zenit disappointed last season but I feel that they will bounce back this campaign and win the league.
Krasnodar should have a good season, they impressed last season and have managed to keep the core of their squad, I predict a third place finish for them.
Spartak had a whirlwind 2015/16 under Alenichev but actually finished the season quite well. With it looking, as they will keep hold of Quincy Promes there is no reason why they cannot challenge for the top spots. There is much excitement about Rubin Kazan with their lavish spending and new manager. They have looked decent in pre-season and I would back them for a top 5 finish. Whether their new-look squad will gel is another issue.
Toke: I am convinced Zenit will pull away with the title. They have lost Hulk, but reinvested some of the money in some interesting players, with more to come I am sure. More importantly however, and I say this every year, I think CSKA’s thin and old squad will finally catch up to them. Spartak, Krasnodar and Rubin should still be a bit behind the two powerhouses though, but I predict them to take the three Europa League spots. I have little faith in Rostov and Lokomotiv due to their off-the-field issues, and I doubt their coaches will last the entire season. The cup is always difficult to predict, but I’ll put my money on Krasnodar who will soon need their first piece of silverware.
Question 2: Who will end up relegated?
Stefano: Two among Ural, Ufa and Arsenal Tula. The Ekaterinburg side has lost several key players such as Martynovich, Acevedo, Sapeta and Gogniev. Ufa will be without Zinchenko, but with a good head coach in Viktor Goncharenko. However, it’s yet to be seen whether this is enough for them to avoid the relegation or not. Arsenal Tula, instead, have not big names in their team, but they’re a more solid squad compared to the Alenichev’s one. Furthermore, if Lokomotiv sell captain Vedran Ćorluka, I bet on “Railwaymen” to be involved in the relegation race, repeating what Dinamo did last season.
Ilya: Orenburg and Anzhi. Anzhi is the weakest team among the teams that stayed in the league. They did nothing to strengthen themselves except appointing Vrba, so it’s time to return to FNL. As for Orenburg, their biggest transfer is Prudnikov. Not a good sign for a team, which is not ready for the highest level. Arsenal Tula also looks like an easy choice too, but they have a very experienced coach and several solid transfers. I think we will see them in the relegation play-offs.
Andrew: I like how Frank Vercauteren managed to somehow engineer a revival last season, but it’s like groundhog day for him – yet again he has been left with a desperately thin squad and little prospect of bringing in new signings any time soon. He looked so fed up in the official club interview in his native Belgium in preseason, I wonder if he is having second thoughts about staying, but right now I have to say they stand out as candidates for the drop. Of course the newly-promoted clubs are at risk, but of Tom, Gazovik and Arsenal I think the latter two are most at risk. Gazovik have had to expand their tiny stadium to meet Premier League requirement, and will play their first three or four home games on the road, so their start to life will be disrupted. Tom, however, have made some excellent signings in Vitaliy Dyakov, Stanislav Manolev, Anton Konchenkov and Ante Puljic among others, so I don’t see them going straight back down, but I am not convinced Arsenal have enough quality to stay up.
Gazovik, Arsenal, Krylia and Amkar to make up the bottom four, the latter two probably surviving in the playoffs.
Joel: Judging from the overall quality of their squads, I would say that both FC Ufa and FC Arsenal Tula are the weakest links in the Russian Premier League at the moment. Newcomers’ FC Orenburg brought in three experienced and quality players this summer (Aleksandr Hutar, Pavel Nyakhaychik, and Aleksandr Prudnikov), but they will nevertheless struggle to secure a place among the big dogs this term.
David: I worry about Ufa. They survived by the skin of their teeth last season and having lost a couple of key players, including top talent Oleksandr Zinchenko to Man City, they could struggle. However, under the tutelage of Goncharenko, and with one of the leagues youngest squads, they could be alright. Newly promoted Tom Tomsk are the Norwich of Russia, yo-yoing between the RFPL and FNL and despite strengthening their squad early, will always be a doubt. FC Orenburg are an unknown quantity with very few players having RFPL experience. Ivorian winger Yacouba Bamba, signed from the depths of Moldova, looks excellent in pre-season, but whether he can hack it in the RPL is another question. Krylia always seemed poor last season, have not added much, and therefore I consider them a likely contender for relegation.
Thomas: Well who saw Dynamo going down at the start of last season? It just proves nobody is too big to go down.
I think Ufa will struggle, they managed to perform a miraculous escape on the last day of the 2015/16 but have now lost talisman Oleksandr Zinchenko to Manchester City. Anzhi Makhachkala struggled defensively last season and have failed to strengthe their backline in this summer transfer window. I am not sure they will get out of it this time.
In terms of the promoted sides I think Arsenal Tula are the most likely to drop through the trap door, they may have scored a lot of goals last year but they seem vulnerable at the back. Not only do FNL winners Orenburg (previously Gazovik) score goals, they are also good at the back so they should be OK. Tom Tomsk have recruited well in this window with experienced defenders Kirill Kombarov and Vitali Dyakov coming in, adding to an already experienced side which should see them through.
Toke: I expect the bottom to be close as usual. We have a lot of teams who could go down with the newly promoted being the obvious ones. I have little faith in Gazovik who lacks experience both on and off the field, but Arsenal Tula could also be in for yet another beating. Of the teams who survived last season, Krylya and Ural could both go down, with the latter being part of my favourites due to the departures of several key players. The bottom two will be Gazovik and Arsenal though.
Question 3: Which club will be the biggest disappointment this season?
Stefano: Rostov. After the last season’s fairy tale, I don’t think they’re strong enough to play another big tournament. Especially if Kurban Berdyev leaves the Rostov-based club. At the same time, Lokomotiv are characterized as well by a big question mark. On the one hand, they’re the only club who has yet to sign someone. On the other hand, they’ve lost Jan Durica and Rifat Zhemaletdinov, who would have been very important for current head coach Igor Cherevchenko.
Ilya: Rubin. Nice transfers, a coach from La Liga, young talents from Lokomotiv. Now everybody expects Rubin to be at least in top 5. But there are some controversies. What is the level of Alex Song right now? Do Zhemaletdinov and Makhatadze have willingness to develop after getting big contracts? Can Javi Gracia adapt in Russia? How long club’s bosses will stand bad results if something goes wrong? What UEFA thinks about such money squandering? Rubin probably won’t participate in the relegation battle, but they are unlikely to get European football this season.
Andrew: It might seem a bit boring now, but Lokomotiv. How long will it be a disappointment though? They are an undoubtedly huge club in the history of Russian football, but their inability to have the slightest logical step in their preparations is awful. How on earth can the possible departure of the unpopular Olga Smorodskaya be announced to not be for over a month? too many questions and not enough answers surround the Railwaymen.
Joel: FC Lokomotiv and FC Rostov are candidates to win the “biggest disappointment award” this season. The lack of financial investment this summer and the lack of the new faces in their squads is certainly worrying their supporters. This almost childish way of preparing the new campaign will probably leave them with a sour taste in their mouths at the end of the season.
David: CSKA Moscow. The replacement of Ahmed Musa with Lacina Traore just does not seem like it will work. Going from a pacy, direct striker, to a 205cm target man is not something I can see CSKA dealing with well. The ageing defence continue to get older and other than Aleksandr Golovin, they have nothing in their squad that really excites. It could be a struggle for them this year.
Thomas: Lokomotiv Moscow have done absolutely no business this summer. We saw in the spring that they struggled without Oumar Niasse and I find it bizarre that they have failed to bring in another striker. Additionally, they have lost Jan Durica whilst Vedran Corluka is likely to go, meaning their usually reliable defence is now under serious threat.
To add to these problems on the pitch, there is talk of coach Igor Cherevchenko getting the boot. Such uncertainty surrounding the club this close to the new campaign can only end badly.
Toke: Lokomotiv and Rostov are the obvious choices. I’ll however go with Rubin. They have signed several high-profile players and spent millions of euros on new players and a head coach from Spain. Integrating nine new signings and a couple of youngsters is however going to take time, especially considering the majority of them are coming from outside of Russia. I wish the best for the new Rubin project, but it will take time to make a tight unit out of the squad.
And let’s be honest, how motivated is a player like Alex Song actually? He could easily become the next Mbark Boussoufa or Yann M’Vila. The same can be said about Zhemaletdinov by the way as he is already a wealthy man despite only playing 5 games for Lokomotiv last season.
Question 4: Which club will be the biggest surprise this season?
Stefano: Rubin and Gazovik. The former is probably to most interesting team for the upcoming season. Javi Gracia knows his deal and the Kazan-based club will certainly make a step forward under him. They’ve made several great signings with the likes of Zambrano, Song and Zhemaletdinov, so they even may not be such a big surprise. The latter is a club that has started a good project some years ago, that brought them to the RFPL last season. Evdokimov is a young coach who has a clear idea of how his team has to play. The arrivals of Gutor, Bamba, Nekhaychik, Sanaya and Prudnikov should be enough for a quiet season. The opening of their reconstructed stadium should also help them to keep their spot in the RFPL as well.
Ilya: Amkar brought a new striker, so now wise Mr. Gadzhiev doesn’t have to use Prudnikov. For me this boring team from Siberia looks stronger than half of the RFPL participants, so this season the Сhemicals will be close to their record high fourth place.
Andrew: If we compare achievements from last season to what this one will bring, I’m confident the biggest change will come from Rubin, but I’m not sure it is much of a surprise with their spending so far. I want them to get back to at least challenging for Europe, which I see them doing, although it would be little short of a disaster if they didn’t, so the pressure may end up telling later in he season. Ural have been gutted of most of their creative talent, but have recruited under the radar his summer and may outperform many people’s expectations. Last summer I horrendously predicted Pavlyuchenko to have an Indian summer, and while I won’t be making the same mistake again, here is less of a feel of his move to Ekaterinburg being part of a mad circus like it was – in hindsight at least – with Kuban.
Joel: I would bet on FC Rubin Kazan. The arrival of Javi Gracia this summer is proving to be a breath of fresh air on a team that had lost their tune a long time ago. The Pamplona born head coach will have several new quality players at disposal and if he manages to fully pass his ideas unto the team, FC Rubin will certainly be a tough bone to chew. Javi Gracia is one of the most credited managers in Spain these days and I believe he will be able to restore some of the dignity the team have lost over the last five years.
David: I’ll go for Terek Grozny. They’ve done well in the transfer window and after going to Italy for pre-season and giving good games to several Serie A sides, it seems like they could have something special about them this year. The central defensive pairing of Andrey Semenov and Sergey Brzygalov is something that you would not be surprised to be starting for Russia in a few years with the shortage of centre backs around, and although they lost the influential Maciej Rybus, Udinese winger Gabriel Torje coming on a 3 year deal is a very apt replacement.
Thomas: Krylia were never in any real danger of going down last season and I think they might be able to push on now. They had one of the best defences in the league in the 2015/16 campaign, which gives them an excellent foundation to build on.
Coach Franky Vercauteren is also incredibly experienced and will know what it takes to take Krylia to the next level.
The fact they have not bought a striker would worry me slightly but there is still time. The side from Samara may not be the most exciting team to watch but I think they could spring some surprises this season.
Toke: This is difficult because years of following Russian football has made me pessimistic on most of the teams’ behalf. I am however a big fan of Pavel Vrba, and I hope his Anzhi team will spoil us with some offensive football. Their squad is far from the best, but he is a clever and charismatic man, and I could see him do well if they give him more time than they did with Semin.
Question 5: Which player will get his breakthrough this season?
Stefano: Georgiy Zhukov. The Kazakh midfielder has everything to replace Gerson Acevedo. He’s had a positive season at Roda and with the help of Vadim Skripchenko, Ekaterinburg may become the perfect place for him where to grow up. He also has the Russian citizenship, hence it wouldn’t be a surprise to watch him wearing Sbornaya’s kit in 2018. Another player who must be given a look at is Ufa’s Andrey Batyutin. He comes from Krasnodar and his left foot is really promising. He’s a talented midfielder who could take the place of Oleksander Zinchenko in the Goncharenko’s tactics. Time will tell whether he’s ready to play in the RFPL or not.
Ilya: Ze Luis. He will probably be Spartak’s main striker this season. He is talented enough to become the team’s second star, but we yet to see a stable performance from him. If Alenichev is able to make the Cape Verdean show his best, Spartak will get several attractive offers next summer.
Andrew: I am really looking forward to seeing Dmitry Korobov claim a regular season-long starting place on the wing at Ural, especially given the physical presence Pavlyuchenko will bring to aim for in the box. He was brilliant from the first match I saw him after making the daunting step up from the FNL to the Premier League, and has such confidence running with the ball. It’s too early to say whether he can add to his two Russia under 18 caps at full international level in time for 2018, but he’s at the right club to develop out of the spotlight. Another player I have been intrigued to see since he joined last summer from Atletico Madrid is teenage midfielder Saeed Ezatolahi at Rostov. He looked comfortable and undaunted in their Champions League qualifier against Anderlecht and deserved his goal.
Joel: I am looking forward to see what FC Rubin Kazan’s newcomer Maxime Lestienne will bring to the team. He was said to be one of the most talented Belgian players a few years ago, but he has been taking too long to make a strong stand.
If given proper playing time, Roman Zobnin and Rifat Zhemaletdinov will surely give his teams, FC Spartak Moscow and FC Rubin Kazan respectively, a solid contribution this season.
David: I said it last year, but I’ll say it again this year, Ilzat Akhmetov. New Rubin Javi Gracia boss seems to have taken a shine to the 18 year old, and he has featured heavily throughout pre-season, and was comfortably Rubin’s best player against Norwich and West Ham. A creative midfielder by trade, his close control and skill make him a valuable asset, and Gracia has been deploying him on the right of midfield so far, in a narrow role rather than a traditional winger. As a backup choice, Anzhi signed Svyatoslav Georgievskiy from relegated Kuban Krasnodar, and the attacking midfielder has sparkled in pre-season, with good performances against Watford and Charlton catching the eye.
Thomas: Zenit striker Luka Đorđević has always had potential but is yet to be given a chance to show it after being farmed out on loan to various clubs. Looking at his record with Shakhtar Donetsk, new coach Mirceu Lucescu seems the type of manager who will give young players a chance. Although strikers Artem Dzyuba and ‘new’ signing Aleksandr Kerzhakov are ahead of the Montenegrin in the pecking order, he may get a chance out wide with Aleksandr Kokorin looking out of favour in St. Petersburg.
Đorđević has had a good pre-season, netting once against Sporting Lisbon and twice against Monaco. Even if he is not in the starting line-up this season, I can see him making an impact off the bench.
Toke: Sardar Azmoun. We have seen him play in the RFPL for years now, but he continues to be slightly underwhelming considering his remarkable talent. Last season he scored nine goals in the RFPL, and he has also scored tons of goals on the Iranian national team. Under the guidance of Kurban Berdyev, I believe this could finally be the season where Azmoun become the class striker we expect him to be, and end among the top scorers in the league. He is 21, so it is about time.
