In this Round Table, our experts discuss the upcoming spring part of the Russian Football Premier League. In the panel we have:
Joel Amorim (@Vostok1981): Writer for Russian Football News, WhoScored, FutnSoccer, Bola na Rede and Futbol Pulse
Stefano Conforti (@ConfortiStefano): Writer for Russian Football News, Futbolgrad and MundoFutbol
Andrew Flint (@AndrewMijFlint): Writer for Russian Football News and Futbolgrad, Senior writer at These Football Times
Andrew Wiese (@AndrewBWiese): Writer for Russian Football News
Toke Theilade (@TokeTheilade): Editor-in-Chief at Russian Football News, Sports editor at Mreast.dk, writer for These Football Times
Which winter signing will have the biggest impact?
Joel: It is hard to say right now, but I believe that both of Terek’s newcomers Magomed Ozdoev and Bernard Berisha will have a major impact in the team. Ozdoev will be the perfect fit for Rashid Rakhimov’s 4-2-3-1 formation, acting as a deep-lying playmaker alongside Daler Kuzyayev in the centre of the pitch. Berisha, on the other hand, will increase the team’s quality on the wings because of his impressive dribbling and technique.
Eric Bicfalvi will surely also have a tremendous impact at FC Ural. Aleksandr Tarkhanov will certainly be able to take the best from the one-time Romanian wonderboy.
Stefano: I want to go against the grain and say Bernard Berisha. A player like him could really help Terek to take that step forward they’ve been waiting for for years. The trio made up of Berisha, Balaj and Roshi could arguably be one of the most dangerous in the RFPL. Together with the Albanian winger, I expect great things also from Krasnodar’s Victor Claesson and Spartak’s Luiz Adriano. All of them could be really decisive for their respective clubs.
Andrew Flint: There are a lot of very interesting signings that have been made this winter, but one that stands out for me is Eric Bicfalvi moving from Tom Tomsk to Ural. I always believe a classy creative midfielder is an underrated necessity for struggling sides; so often you see more physical players at such clubs, but in a player like Bicfalvi Ural will always have an outlet to use what little possession they may have. His goal threat has already proven to be crucial after his double in the Cup against Krasnodar, and I believe he will be the difference between survival and relegation for Ural.
Andrew Wiese: Can I cheat and say a winter signing that DIDN’T happen? Spartak keeping hold of Quincy Promes, RFN’s #2 rated player in 2016, is absolutely huge in their attempts to win the league for the first time since 2001. Though Liverpool were tabbed as the frontrunners to grab the Dutchman, Spartak asking too much for him MIGHT be what they need to help them clinch the title.
Which actual signing might make the biggest impact? I’ll stay with the Myaso and say Aleksandr Samedov. Spartak’s addition of a veteran international-quality player might be what they need to take the next step toward being at the top of Russia once again.
Toke: As I recently said on the RFN Podcast, I have big expectations for Ari at Lokomotiv. They really needed a striker, and in Ari they get a proven goalscorer, which should be a huge boost for Yuri Semin’s men. Ari is obviously not the best player signed this winter, that title probably goes to Farfán or Ivanovic, but he fulfils his new team’s needs, which is crucial at this point of the season. Another player I expect great things from is Victor Claesson at Krasnodar.
Who will win the league, and who will qualify for European football?
Joel: It will be interesting to see if Spartak Moscow will be able to cope with the pressure of being the leaders after the painstakingly long winter break. FC Zenit are now free from the distractions of continental football and will surely concentrate on winning the league. They will offer the Moscow outfit a hard time out there.
CSKA Moscow, FC Terek, FC Krasnodar and FC Rostov will fight a fierce battle for a place in European football next term.
Stefano: As said by Lokomotiv defender Nemanja Pejcinovic: “If Spartak doesn’t win the title this season, they’ll have to wait for it for many years”. Carrera’s men are clearly the favorites, especially if we consider their big winter transfers window. This season is a huge chance for them, but I don’t think Zenit will give up until the end. Regarding a place for European competitions, I’m quite sure Spartak, Zenit and CSKA are already qualified. Then, I’d add Krasnodar and the winning team of the Russian Cup.
Andrew Flint: It is so hard to look past Spartak for the title given their professionalism and efficient style, not to mention their five-point lead over Zenit, but this weekend could change all that with Krasnodar hosting Massimo Carrera’s men and Zenit travelling to Moscow to take on CSKA. The only change I see happening in the top four between now and the end of the season is Krasnodar pipping Terek to fourth, even though the Chechens have done well to add Bernard Berisha, so my final top four will be as follows; Spartak, Zenit, CSKA, Krasnodar. And Ural to win the Cup!
Andrew Wiese: I’m tipping the Red and Whites of Spartak to maintain their lead and clinch their first Russian championshipe in more than 15 years. They have a great balance of scoring and defense and with additions of the aforementioned Samedov and Luiz Adriano, I think they’ll stay at the top.
I predict CSKA to leapfrog Zenit into 2nd spot as the additions of Olanare and Vitinho, not to mention the continued growth of Chalov, should add goals to the already stingy defense of Akinfeev, & co. Europa League spots go to Zenit St. Petersburg and Krasnodar.
Toke: The title is Spartak’s to lose. They are huge favourites, and have done well on the transfer market this winter. Zenit will finish second and CSKA third. CSKA look better than in the autumn, but I expect them to fall short of Zenit, who are further in their project. Krasnodar will also qualify for Europe, and then I expect the winner of the Cup to be Lokomotiv.
Who will be relegated?
Joel: FC Tomsk are doomed and not even the money coming in from Gazprom will be enough to save them from relegation. FC Arsenal Tula, FC Orenburg and FC Anzhi will also struggle to grant a place in the top flight next season. FC Krylya Sovetov and FC Ural have signed quality players during the winter break and have now increased chances of escaping the pits of relegation.
Stefano: Tom Tomsk for sure. Then, there’s a true war among Anzhi, Krylya Sovetov, Ural, Orenburg and Arsenal to avoid the last place which would ensure automatic relegation. I see in Anzhi the worst team at the moment. Arsenal have strengthened their squad, while Ural and Orenburg can count on competent coaches. Hence, I think Anzhi and Tom will be relegated, while Orenburg and Krylya will feature in the play-offs against the 3rd and the 4th teams of the FNL.
Andrew Flint: It doesn’t take a genius to see Tom are guaranteed to take one automatic relegation place, but I see Orenburg joining them. They have been dreadful at scoring and haven’t reinforced up front despite letting Artem Delkin, Alexander Prudnikov and Yacouba Bamba leave. Arsenal meanwhile have brought in better players such as experienced keeper Vladimir Gabulov. Ilya Maximov will soon be back from injury as well. Ural have enough quality to climb out of the relegation playoff places, probably at the expense of Krylya or Anzhi; I’d go with the latter based on their utter chaos. So my bottom four would be; Anzhi, Arsenal, Orenburg, Tom.
Andrew Wiese: Tom Tomsk are definitely down as their winter appears to indicate they are cutting losses already. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see either Orenburg or Arsenal Tula going down but I’m going to go with Orenburg taking the drop. Arsenal Tula has been fairly ambitious in the January window and I think the talent they’ve brought in will help them to stay up.
Toke: Tom for sure. There is no way that mess of a club can stay up. Orenburg will go down with them, while I predict Arsenal Tua and Anzhi to finish on the two play-off relegation spots. Anzhi have a big gap down to the line, but with their winter chaos, I expect them to struggle immensely this spring.
Which head coaches, if any, will be sacked in the spring?
Joel: Although they have revamped their squad during the winter break, Sergei Kiryakov will need to pull off something very special in order to maintain his place as FC Arsenal Tula’s head coach.
Aleksandr Grigoryan, who landed at Dagestan this winter, also has a Herculean task at hand and will need to be very strong in order to withstand the pressure of working with a completely renovated team that signed more than two dozens players during the last transfer window.
Stefano: That’s a good question. I guess it’ll likely be Tom’s Valeriy Petrakov, who should be fed up for what’s going on with his team and shouldn’t last long. Shalimov, Kirjakov and Grigoryan are in my opinion that coaches who risk more at the moment. Krasnodar aren’t playing champagne football anymore, while Arsenal Tula and Anzhi’s managements will desperately need a change it their situations starts getting even worse. To avoid relegation, sometimes extraordinary changes are needed.
Andrew Flint: I wouldn’t be surprised if Alexander Grigoryan was fired by Anzhi to be honest! Mad as it sounds, having only just been appointed with a ridiculous turnover of players, this is Anzhi we’re talking about, and I see their results going that way. Another strong candidate is Valeriy Petrakov, but the only reason I think he might stay is simply that he hasn’t been fired yet. They are obviously down, both he and the club know this, so they must have agreed to let him at least try to resurrect them next season.
Andrew Wiese: It wouldn’t surprise me to see 4-5 sackings this spring. The bottom three sides in the RPL have all been so poor that I could see all three coaches shown the door at some point in the next few months.
As well, at the top (richer) end it wouldn’t surprise me to see a manager or two of the well-known clubs be on a mildly hot seat. If Lucescu or Goncharenko see their sides slip much in the standings, it wouldn’t surprise me to hear rumors of their demise.
Toke: Unless something unexpected happens, I don’t think any of the teams in the top half will sack their coaches. Anzhi and Tom are my favourites because of the chaos at the clubs.
